South Africa may have enjoyed 100 consecutive days without load-shedding, but experts warn the reprieve is built on temporary fixes rather than lasting solutions.
According to Nedbank’s latest Energy Tracker, electricity demand continues to outstrip supply, forcing Eskom to lean on costly short-term measures such as load reduction, increased imports, and diesel-fuelled open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs).
Economist André Lourens noted that without these emergency stopgaps, “the country would have experienced load-shedding during the winter of 2025.”
“The coal extension buys us time, but it also raises the bar for everything else,” said Rentia van Tonder, head of power at Standard Bank CIB.
While these efforts have reduced outages compared to previous years, just 641 GW shed between January and July 2025, versus 24,408 GW in 2023, they come at immense cost and highlight the fragility of the grid.
Private energy projects have helped remove demand from Eskom’s grid, giving the utility breathing room to maintain its coal fleet. But analysts caution that South Africa is still not adding new generation capacity fast enough.
Standard Bank CIB and Cresco’s latest energy report shows the gap widening as Eskom prepares to decommission some of the oldest coal plants in the world. “The coal extension buys us time, but it also raises the bar for everything else,” said Rentia van Tonder, head of power at Standard Bank CIB.
South Africa’s longer-term energy security now depends on rapidly accelerating new generation capacity, or risk falling back into the rolling blackouts that defined recent years.
Read the full article at Daily Investor
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